Industry overview
What is shaping tobacco
Tobacco research sits at the meeting point of regulation, public health and farm livelihoods. Every study we take on in this sector follows strict ethical guidelines and focuses on compliance, awareness, livelihoods and cessation.
- Point-of-sale and packaging rules are tightly regulated
- Public-health programmes track awareness and cessation
- Farm households weigh alternative crops and livelihoods
Client background
A policy research institute, working in Six cities in Malaysia & South Africa. Client identity is withheld to protect confidentiality.
- Organisation
- A policy research institute
- Sector
- Tobacco
- Team engaged
- Market Research
- Services
- Government research, Offline data collection, Data processing & analytics
Client challenge
Policymakers needed independent evidence on the share of cigarettes sold without legal health warnings or tax markings, which official sales data could not reveal.
Research objectives
- Deliver on the brief: estimating illicit cigarette prevalence through an empty pack survey.
- Understand the views, needs and behaviour of discarded packs.
- Produce results that can be compared across groups and locations.
- Give the client evidence it can act on within 8 weeks.
Target audience
The work focused on 12,000 discarded packs.
- discarded packs12,000
Audiences we typically reach in tobacco
Retailers and point-of-sale ownersTobacco farmersPublic-health programme teamsAdults trying to quitRegulators and enforcement officials
Geographic coverage
Coverage: Six cities in Malaysia & South Africa. Markets: Malaysia and South Africa.
- Malaysia
- South Africa
Research methodology
A structured quantitative design, so results could be compared across groups, locations and time.
- 1Brief
- 2Empty pack collection
- 3Pack coding and analysis
- 4Insight
Field teams collected discarded packs along randomly selected routes in each city, following a published method. Each pack was coded for warnings, markings and origin by trained coders, with double-coding on a sample.
Government researchOffline data collectionData processing & analytics
Sampling strategy
- discarded packs
- 12,000
- Respondents were selected across Six cities in Malaysia & South Africa using quotas set in advance for each location and respondent type, so no single area or group dominated.
Data collection
- Trained local-language interviewers conducted interviews in person, supervised in the field.
Data quality & validation
- Back-checks on a share of completed interviews
- Time and location checks on field interviews
- Supervisor accompaniment in the field
- Logic and range checks on the final data
- Work carried out under our ISO 20252 quality procedures
Data analysis
- Interactive dashboard for ongoing tracking
Key findings
- A transparent, repeatable method is essential for evidence that will be scrutinised in policy debates.
Recommendations
- Build on the core insight: a transparent, repeatable method is essential for evidence that will be scrutinised in policy debates.
- Re-measure after the changes to confirm the effect.
Business impact
- The institute obtained city-level estimates of non-compliant packs and used them in its policy recommendations on enforcement and tax administration.
What changed in the business as a result of the work. Impact is described qualitatively.
Deliverables & next steps
- Insight report and management presentation
- Cleaned data file and data tables
- Interactive dashboard
- Evaluation findings with programme recommendations
- Repeat the measure after changes are in place to track progress.
- A natural follow-on question: what helps adults quit successfully?
Client identity is withheld to protect confidentiality.